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Summary and Description of the grant

This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver and apply new mathematical complexity methods for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Our new tools will specifically help three European Weather Services improve their capability to forecast extreme weather events (e.g. catastrophic windstorms) - a rapidly emerging real world challenge expected due to anthropogenic climate change. The questions we address are: 1) What are the deterministic time limits of predictability for extreme weather events?2) How can we use emergent dynamical patterns to enhance predictability of extreme weather events?3) What is the role of spatial scale interactions in the physical processes leading to extreme weather? Our approach is based on properties of the atmospheric system which are dynamical (evolve in time, with relevant timescales ranging from hours to years) and emergent (arise from the nonlinear interaction of physical processes having different spatiotemporal scales). The project is strongly grounded on mathematical and physical sciences and is designed around collaboration with meteorology and weather forecasting operational services. The project investigators provide a unique combination of world-leading expertise from different disciplines: atmospheric and climate sciences, the mathematical theory of dynamical systems, the statistical theory of extreme events. Knowledge exchange will be built on strong existing working relationships with three European National Weather Services: the Met Office, the Met \'Eireann and the KNMI. Members of these Services will be involved in steering the project towards real-world applications and monitoring the achievements.

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Grant Event Details:
Name: PREDEX - Predictability of Extreme Weather Events - EP/I019146/1
Start Date: 2010-09-01T00:00:00+00:00
End Date: 2012-08-31T00:00:00+00:00

Organization: University of Exeter

Description: This collaborative interdisciplinary project will deliver and apply new mathematical complexity methods for quantifying the predictability of extreme events in complex dynamical systems. Our new tools will specifically help three European Weather Services ...